Super Forecasters

 This article gives an introduction to the concept of "superforecaster". It has occurred to me that I may be a great "Cassandra" but I could learn to be a better Cassandra.

One key is to continually check your forecast against new information. As it stands, this is what I forecast as of July 26, 2021:

• Endemic Covid, most of world population (vaccinated or not) infected by end of 2021
• Existing measures like social distancing, masks, lock downs ineffective in the long run. Politicians gradually coming to this conclusions. 
• 100 million deaths by end of 2021

If this seems alarmist, I encourage the reader to read up on "breakthrough infections" - Infections of vaccinated people. It gives a glimpse of how delta is not you cuddly old classic COVID. It spreads with astonishing speed and effectiveness. And it's ripping through most of the world which has no access to vaccines at all. Vaccines save lives but may actually help the virus to spread via people who don't suspect they are infected since they have been vaccinated.

July 27, 2021

Today, the UK is surprised to see infection rates plummet. This is attributed to high vaccination and "herd immunity". What remains is to test to see who has actually caught the virus. Official policy in England is basically "end state". "Measures" do nothing more than postpone the inevitable. I await the very good statisticians in the UK to look behind the numbers. Is delta endemic in England? Good source of information here.

Fauci gives rough estimates of Pfizer effectiveness at 35%. They have abandoned the idea of protecting against infection in favour of protecting against hospitalization. In US, delta is at "only" about 30% of infections but this will miss people who don't know they have been infected. 

Official opinion is still a mix of delta warning, happy talk and "keep fighting delta like we fought classic". People who are saying this is a new game, a new virus and a need for a new strategy are still voices in the wilderness (except for Boris Johnson of the UK, who has always kinda been in the wilderness - even a broken clock is right twice a day).

This article from Canada is quite typical. It is full of fascinating facts along with denial of exactly those facts. "Experts" are planning with a view to the rear-view mirror, supporting more of the same measures, ignoring the fact that, for example, twice as many Canadians show antibodies (they have been infected with the virus) than those vaccinated. And that's just Canadians who get tested. People with mild or zero symptoms don't get tested. There are many other reasons not to get tested. What is relevant is the actual spread of the virus. The article is also full of "expert" opinion which is basically happy talk based on nothing whatsoever. Maybe toss in a few "facts" to show you read the papers.

To put a fine point on it, I am still very much in the minority.

Check concept of superforecasters here. It's a real thing. They tighten the idea of a "forecast" by:

• Making the forcast specific, usually tied to a number or specific event with a time deadline;
• The ask for an assessment of confidence. This makes a huge difference. For example, in my own forecasts, I'd now give it an 80% confidence level. This can go up or down as the facts roll in.
• The are an open group of forecasters. Some better than others. Some specialized in certain areas. That brings in different points of view, essential these days when so many seem see the world through a very narrow tunnel.

As I go alone, I will try to raise my standards to the super forecaster standard.

July 28

Mandatory vaccinations are more and more common. Today in several states. The big picture is delta is running wild but perhaps the reason for all the excitement is being missed. Yes, vaccinate but is the *lack* of vaccination the main reason for the exploding numbers? And are we assuming that vaccinated people are not getting delta? In my opinion, mandatory vaccination will "flatten the curve" for deaths but have zero effect on actual infections. We are still looking for reliable stats on actual infections, not tests or reported symptoms for example.

UK doubling rate is 17 days ("More or Less" Podcast).